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There’s been a lot of speculation about John McCain joining the ticket with John Kerry as Vice President. Most recently Representative Dick Gephardt, himself a potential Vice President, added to the speculation. The talk is smart politics, making Kerry (and now Gephardt) look bi-partisan and open-minded, but it has little merit. McCain may be increasingly critical of, and alienated by the Bush Administration and its supporters, but he is a true conservative Republican. Kerry would, selecting McCain, risk a substantial rebellion on his left that would come from a revived Ralph Nader. And that’s assuming that McCain, who has denied any interest in the position, has been being coy instead of sincere. While Bush blundering of the Iraq war, particularly the scandalous torture of prisoners, has hit McCain personally, there are areas (anti-abortion and free trade/anti-protectionism) where McCain might hurt a Democratic ticket. Kerry has already been shading himself on abortion and is known for pro-free trade positions, so accenting positions that many Democratic constituents (pro-choice and union) abhor is not in his best interest. While Democrats will tolerate a lot from Kerry in order to beat Bush, at some point voters jumping ship for Nader becomes a real issue.

There is also the question of where McCain goes if he runs. If he wins, at best he has eight years as VP, a position of limited influence for a person who is known as a maverick. Having burned bridges with his party, he is not likely to be able to go back. Even if Democrats come to accept him, by no means a shoe-in, his age becomes a real factor in eight years (he is now 67) if he entertains presidential ambitions. However, if he does nothing and Bush loses, McCain’s Republican stock goes up as one of the more prominent people that didn’t sink the Republican Party during the Bush years. That might earn him a bid in four years for president or, given his age, perhaps more political power and capital behind the scenes.

Finally, McCain’s reasons aside, there is the ultimate reason Kerry won’t pick McCain. For a presidential candidate who is not known as overly inspirational, Kerry well might be overshadowed by McCain while in office. Whatever else may be said about him, McCain is no Quayle.