Eric Zorn of the Chicago Tribune asked Illinois bloggers to make predictions and submit them to him tonight. The predictions are for
1. The final percentage gap between Barack Obama and Alan Keyes (e.g., 37)
2. The final electoral vote margin (and the winner) between George Bush and John Kerry (e.g., Kerry by 10)
and
3. For tie-breaking purposes only, Alan Keyes’ percentage of the vote.
My guess is
1. Obama by 46 (with apologies to Random Act of Kindness and Jerry Kohn)
2. Kerry by 22
3. Keyes 25%
My quick justifications:
- I see Obama getting more benefit from big turnout and cross-over vote than polls have been suggesting - voting Keyes last minute will be too much of a leap of faith for most (play on words intended).
- Kerry loses FL, but gets IA, MN and surprise WV. Otherwise see Rick Klau’s map (which I consulted).
3. Keyes vote total will reflect the hard core religious right, GOP voters for whom the party ticket is religion and some others - don’t think we’re looking at more than a quarter of voters that fit the bill.
I wish I had more time to justify it, but as it is I’m running far behind today (even with that extra daylight savings hour). We’ll see how close I come Tuesday.
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