A lot has been written (including a small bit by me) about the problems the Democrats are having with their “brand” - conveying what it is Democrats represent. What hasn’t been discussed as much, in this vein, is the problem Republicans are having with their brand. Some of this is because the Republicans have been eking out victories more than Democrats - but Bush is doing long-term damage to the GOP brand nonetheless. Where is the damage to the Republican coalition? Consider the following list of groups/perspectives likely to be alienated by significant portions of the “Bush” GOP - some with links to them from my prior explanations during the campaign:
- Fiscal Conservatives
- Small Government Conservatives and Burkeans (aka those that believe that no change is best)
- Isolationists
- Libertarians
- Small Businesspeople
- Good Government/Accountable Government Proponents
- Republican “Moderates”
Did Bush win some or even the vast majority of these votes this election? The answer is likely “yes” - but brands may take a while to destroy, you can live off of your past promise for a while (think of the Democrats and the New Deal coalition). When a brand proves time and again that it isn’t what it purports to be, it starts to lose its meaning. Look in 2008 (and maybe in 2006) for the voter attrition through profound disillusionment to set in - and Democrats who get their act together will start posting wins. While many of the Democrats will be knocking off GOP moderates - they will not be the only ones to fall. The GOP under Bush is no longer the Party of Lincoln. The GOP coalition under Bush is not a majority Party.
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