It’s a fair question to ask if Christine Cegelis can win against a non-Henry Hyde Republican candidate, now that Hyde has announced his retirement. While the proof is in the election, here are a handful of reasons why she could pull it off.
1. Name recognition in the district Christine will be the only candidate to have run in the entire district from either party (barring someone completely unexpected, like Alan Keyes jumping in the race).
2. Campaign time and organization Christine is already campaigning now - and is doing so much earlier than last time around. She also has maintained many of the volunteers she acquired over time in her last race - plus is benefiting from more immediate and greater institutional recognition among Democrats and organizations sympathetic to Democratic views.
3. Money Christine will have more of it this time around because she has a track record and Democrats would love to gain an open seat (and who else of comparable stature and financing will run for Democrats there?)
4. Running against George W. Bush There was (apparently) a lot of loyalty and/or residual affection for Henry Hyde in his district (not to mention name recognition) - but with Hyde gone and a lesser known Republican (in all likelihood) to take his place, Christine can run against Bush policies. These policies haven’t treated Illinois too well (from Iraq War casualties, to the healthcare/pharmaceutical affordability crisis, to the economy, to privatizing Social Security - and the list goes on). Christine has a good argument to voters for party change - and with George W. Bush not running for re-election, my guess is that affection for him personally may be outweighed by the effects of Bush Administration policies.
It’s not a slam-dunk for Christine Cegelis this time around, the district has been Republican for a long time (although it has gained more Cook County voters over the years) - but Christine may get a victory nonetheless.
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