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Notes on some of the prospective candidates for the presidential election in 2008.

Democrat Evan Bayh, Indiana Senator

Bayh got a coveted spot as keynote speaker at the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner at the end of October. Bayh, along with Bill Frist (mentioned below) is among the top fundraisers this year, clearing $1 million raised.

Democrat Bill Richardson, New Mexico Governor

Richardson has a biography coming out where he is reported to say the treatment of Chinese-American researcher Wen Ho Lee was “wrong.” My guess is it’s too little too late - and members of the Chinese and Asian community are not likely to forget Wen Ho Lee’s treatment anytime soon. This apology of sorts doesn’t fix the security lapses that happened on Richardson’s watch at the Energy Department. Richardson is smart to try to get it all out in the press now and make it “old news” by the time of the 2008 campaign - but I think that for a man who in other respects is quite attractive as a presidential candidate, his time as head of the Energy Department is a sinker. Campaign 2008 will feature at least two major issues, competence and security. In the Democratic primaries human rights may also play a significant role. Richardson’s record at Energy writes the opposition ads.

Republican Bill Frist, Senate Majority Leader from Tennessee

While we may have had our suspicions about a heart doctor who could challenge a neurologist’s brain diagnosis based on home video, his recent healthcare mishap suggests real ignorance of healthcare, finance and politics. Frist also, with his “Justice Sunday” appearance to appeal to the religious right, made a mistake about where the post-Bush country is headed. “Be like Bush” is not a viable option and, increasingly, Frist isn’t either.

Republican Mitt Romney, Massachusetts Governor

Amy Sullivan has an interesting piece in the Washington Monthly, Mitt Romney’s Evangelical Problem, that suggests Romney’s problem is with the religious right in the Republican primaries - not with a Democrat in the general election. It’s a case of your “friends” being your worst enemies.

“…[C]oncerns about Mormonism don’t pose much of a problem in the general course of political and social life. In the real dynamics of a campaign, though, they are huge vulnerabilities, waiting to be exploited. To see how this might happen, take a look at the 2002 gubernatorial race in Arizona. In that campaign, Democratic state attorney general Janet Napolitano faced popular Republican congressman Matt Salmon for the open governor’s seat. A month before election day, the race was neck-and-neck, when a third-party candidate named Dick Mahoney began running a television commercial that raised Salmon’s Mormonism in the context of a Mormon fundamentalist sect that openly practices polygamy on the Arizona/Utah border. The ad was offensive and was immediately denounced by religious and political leaders. It was also effective.

On election day, Salmon lost to Napolitano by a razor-thin margin. Napolitano won in part by picking up votes among moderate female voters, but also because Salmon ran far behind congressional candidates in the most conservative and heavily evangelical districts. In each of these precincts, his support was between 10 and 20 points lower than right-wing congressmen Trent Franks and Jeff Flake.
….
Salmon lost evangelical votes at the polls even though he enjoyed the backing of evangelical leaders, some of whom denounced the anti-Mormon ads. Arizona Republic political columnist Rob Robb told me that Salmon’s support from evangelical leaders ‘did not translate into support among evangelicals at the grassroots.’ ‘Around here,” he said, echoing my childhood experience, “evangelicals are regularly instructed that Mormonism is a cult.’ …[T]he general election isn’t where Romney would be most vulnerable. Long before he reaches that point, he will have to prevail in the GOP primaries. Nearly everyone I spoke to brought up the example of the 2000 primaries, in which Bush surrogates went after Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) candidacy by placing calls to voters in South Carolina that claimed he had fathered an illegitimate black child and implied that his wife was addicted to drugs.”