There’s been a lot of guessing about when and what Jim Edgar will say when he announces his intentions to run, or not, in the 2006 Illinois GOP gubernatorial primaries. Yesterday at a Naperville Area Chamber of Commerce event, Edgar told the Naperville Sun that Governor Rod Blagojevich’s decision to run or not would affect his own.
“[W]hether (Blagojevich) runs or not will have a major impact on my decision, because if someone else is the Democratic nominee, I think we have to re-evaluate the whole equation.”
It’s an interesting statement that seems easy, at first, to dismiss. With both Speaker of the House Madigan and Senate President Jones backing Governor Rod Blagojevich, and with no announced intra-party competition, does anyone believe Blagojevich won’t run? But then I thought a bit more about it.
Face Value
Governor Blagojevich is supposedly going to decide on running for re-election in November. From the Naperville Sun article,
“Blagojevich aides have said the governor likely will announce his intent after the two-week fall veto session concludes in early November.”
What does that mean for Edgar? Well, if his comment is taken at face value, it makes it a shorter primary season - he has until December 19th to file his petitions for his candidacy. A shorter primary season favors Edgar a number of ways including:
- Forestalling his opposition (some of whom may feel the need to wait him out and reduce their campaigning - and all of whom may refrain from criticizing him to avoid seeming petty, alienating moderate GOP voters who have fond memories, etc. - see more about this below).
- Making name recognition even more of a premium. Edgar gets a giant media boost initially if he runs - and probably has the best, most positive name recognition among GOP candidates out there given his years in state office.
- Gaining favorable press as, while he waits, he can pose as almost a Platonic ruler, not seeking rule, but having it thrust upon him (not bad positioning after a couple administrations with substantial corruption scandals - and a great way to distance yourself from former Republican Governor George Ryan’s corruption trial headlines).
- If corruption gets the better of Governor Blagojevich in the next month and a half, Edgar can immediately and dramatically swoop in as Illinois’ savior.
- Preserving his health by minimizing the campaign season.
- Likely reducing the pool of money available to his competitors, with some party people waiting to see whether Edgar is in or out before writing any checks.
- Finally, if Edgar decides not to run, he does so with about as much information as one can get about the position Blagojevich is in for re-election, and without having to spend much time or effort to get there.
In sum, Edgar’s position really isn’t a bad position at all. In fact, it really is hard to imagine it being much better.
Other Possibilities
Give Moderation A Chance….
It might be that Edgar is trying to limit the field by not announcing his intention - and helping his personal favorite(s) get a leg up on their competition (knowing that he won’t run). I don’t know as much as I’d like to for writing how this would play out - but it might be a way to limit the number of moderates in the race to make them stronger (by making them fewer) - or to eliminate particular candidates. Beneficiaries in this course of action include candidate Steve Rauschenberger and Ron Gidwitz, who have announced they are running regardless of Edgar’s decision. Those harmed by Edgar’s delay include U.S. Representative Ray LaHood and State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, both of whom have said they would delay their runs to hear from Edgar.
It’s My Party….
It might be a self-centered view that Edgar doesn’t care much about the effect of his long decision-making process on his party. It’s certainly true that the Republican Party of Alan Keyes is not the party of Edgar - but Edgar is enough of a go-along to get-along kind of guy to have Chaired Bush’s Illinois Re-election campaign. So bitterness doesn’t seem too likely (at least in public).
While I tend to believe Edgar won’t run - it will be interesting to see if he does and how it plays out.
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