Saying a political race is about turning out your supporters isn’t saying too much - it’s always about that. But what makes the 2006 race for governor in Illinois different is that turning out your base is going to be extremely hard.
While Governor Rod Blagojevich has recently tried to court the public, and his Democratic base, by releasing Illinois First funds held since the beginning of his administration and his recent effort to provide health insurance coverage to all of Illinois’ uninsured children (All Kids), for many it is likely too late. The Blagojevich Administration has taken its toll, so to speak, with ongoing scandals and teacher pension raids pushing even traditional supporters to the edge. I am not the greatest barometer of Democratic thinking statewide, but when I hear Democrats talk about what other Democrats are saying I don’t hear any enthusiasm.
On the Republican side, with former Governor Jim Edgar out (who was far from perfect, if better than the rest of the field) prospects are dim. There may be some anger at Democrats for what’s happening at the state level, but local politics has become national as people consider Katrina and are reminded regularly of it at the pump and in their heating bills. There may be a number of reasons why Republican DuPage County Board Chair Robert Schillerstrom and Hinsdale Republican State Representative Patti Bellock are going to visit the Gulf coast this month with Reverend Theresa Dear, president of the DuPage NAACP - but one reason is George W. Bush is Bob and Patti’s Republican president. And their last governor, former Republican Governor George Ryan, is on trial for corruption. In short, local Republican officials have something to prove about government cronyism, security and, thanks to president Bush, competence. The Bush Administration’s catastrophic ineptitude and indifference will depress Illinois Republican vote as people “remember New Orleans” on their expensive daily commute and in the costly warmth of their homes. Recent memories of Alan Keyes as standard bearer and the far rightward tilting of the viable GOP candidates in their primary will alienate others who can otherwise afford the cost of driving to the polls and maintaining a residence in President Bush’s America.
It’s grim. For the governor’s race in 2006, at the top of the ticket, it’s about GOTV, because in this campaign it will be much easier to vote against the other side than to vote for your own.
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