WurfWhile

According to the Chicago Tribune, with 89.7% of precincts reporting, and the count ended for tonight, here are the Illinois 6th Congressional Results:

Tammy Duckworth has 12,603 votes (43.17%)
Christine Cegelis has 11,947 votes (40.92%)
Lindy Scott has 4,644 votes (15.91%)

While I’ll need to think about the race more, here are my first impressions.

1. In two important respects I read the race wrong.

- I thought Lindy Scott would garner a higher percentage in the race than the 15.9% he did - it will be worth looking at where Lindy’s votes came from.

- I underestimated the power of the Cegelis campaign surge in the last couple months - I thought that much of the effort was likely to come too late.

2. I also thought that the amount of attention the campaigns were showering on voters might backfire on one or both of the leading two campaigns - while by its nature this is hard to measure, it doesn’t seem to have done so.

3. Whatever the ultimate results, the Cegelis campaign was a victory for the grassroots - outspent, out-endorsed and with less media exposure (unpaid and paid) Cegelis ran a campaign clearly the equal of Duckworth with likely no more than a few percentage points to separate the two candidates, no matter which way it goes.

4. A final impression, I think this might well have been a very different race without Lindy Scott - but not necessarily in the way some, looking at the slim vote margins between the top two candidates, might think. Without Scott, Cegelis would not have had the debate practice and exposure early in the race - and Cegelis likely would have found herself more isolated later in the race, when Tammy entered, since Tammy’s high-level press exposure and fundraising strategy limited the amount of her debate contact (and might well have limited it more). Scott also provided a second critique of the presumed front-runner Tammy Duckworth in the press and on the campaign trail.

Tammy Duckworth has called the race her victory in the press - as any candidate with a lead would do. Christine Cegelis is as far as I understand it staying mum, given the close race, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there are challenges to the count when it is finally finished (I’m guessing) tomorrow. Stay tuned.