I’m not for gambling expansion - but here I’m interested in the strategy of what Republican gubernatorial candidate Judy Baar Topinka proposed today: a Casino in Chicago. Rich Miller does an exceptional job (as he often does) covering it here. My initial take is that I’m of two minds on the wisdom of the move.
The Case for Brilliance
Look, you don’t have money to match incumbent Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich - and you’re not really doing terribly well in the polls. You need to make a splash. The easiest way to do it is to betray your GOP base. You search around, what part of your “base” has been complaining and at best offers you luke warm support? The social conservatives? What can we do to show “innovative” thinking that “rewards” them for their “support” while offering enough to our real base to make the gambit pay off? What about a Chicago Casino (which prominent Democrats like Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley dream of) that will be used for revenue to freeze property taxes in places like DuPage, shoring up the GOP anti-tax suburban base we need to have any chance of pulling this off? If we get in office Democrats will work for it along with enough Republicans and, if things don’t our way, we can try to use the GOP minority and a gubernatorial veto to blame the Democrats for screwing it up. No matter how this plays out, people will be talking about Judy Baar Topinka for a little while - and that can only help. If it plays well we build momentum for the fall campaign. If it doesn’t play well - heck, it’s summer, we’ll have time to recover and reposition.
The Case for Stupidity
Let’s go to the video tape - yes, you’ve contradicted yourself pretty clearly.
You alienate some of your conservative base and make an even better case for social conservative voters to stay home.
You show that the Democrats are right about the budget being tight - it’s so tight that even you can’t come up with a “real” solution - instead you try a variation of the gimmick the GOP lambasted Governor Blagojevich about.
Since your plan requires the Chicago casino have a private owner, and Chicago Mayor Daley says he will only accept Chicago ownership - plus you need to get this through a Democratic Illinois General Assembly - you’re either giving up the ghost or don’t have a plan. No matter which option people think is true, it isn’t good.
Conclusion
Overall I suspect for Judy’s situation the Chicago casino gamble is a plus. I haven’t looked hard at the budget numbers, and suspect they’re not truly in Judy’s favor, but most voters are not CPAs and as long as Republicans can make a plausible case they’ll probably blunt the “fuzzy math” objection. Topinka has been battered on the lack of trustworthiness charge by the Blagojevich campaign enough that one more flip-flop on her part isn’t going to change many new minds. The reality is Judy isn’t in great shape in the race now, so she needed to try something. I don’t think this will work in the end, but the gamble likely won’t cost her much - and she could get lucky. Like having the unpopular President George W. Bush campaigning for her recently - things are bad enough it was probably worth a try.
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