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While the 14th Congressional District has only a small part of DuPage in it, this cycle’s Democratic primary might come close to hitting the record spending in last year’s neighboring 6th Congressional District, where about $1,165,000 was spent. Even without reaching that high, spending could easily set records in the other counties in the district (Bureau, DeKalb, Henry, Kane, Kendall, Lee and Whiteside).

Assuming that State Representative Linda Chapa LaVia enters the race along with Joe Serra, the Democratic primary in the 14th would have at least four contenders with Jotham Stein, who has announced, and John Laesch, who plans to announce this weekend. Of the four, Linda Chapa LaVia should raise very large amounts of money, likely the most, and one would think that Jotham Stein and John Laesch each might raise six-figure amounts. While it’s far from a given that the totals would exceed last year’s 6th Congressional Democratic primary spending, if Dennis Hastert retires look for a tremendous amount of money going into the 14th district Democratic primary.

I believe in public financing - so I’m not celebrating the amounts involved - but I am happy that there is so much Democratic candidate interest, and improved candidate quality, in the 14th district. It bodes well for local Democrats. Last cycle, December of 2005, I suggested that DuPage was likely to get at least one Democrat in congress soon among its three congressional districts. I wrote:

“While one (maybe two) Democratic wins are possible in 2006, I expect we will have at least one Democratic congressional representative by 2008. Optimistic? Perhaps. Realistic? Yes. Demographic changes, candidate quality and the political environment have improved that much.”

While the political atmosphere has changed since I wrote my prediction, I stand by my words. Right now the 14th district looks like the best prospect for making my prediction come true, but it’s still a bit early for 2008 campaigns. With longstanding rumors of retirement by Congressman Judy Biggert (6th District) and a possible rematch of Democrat Tammy Duckworth and first term Congressman Peter Roskam (not to mention other possible challengers to Roskam) - things could really get exciting in DuPage congressional elections. A DuPage Democratic congressman in 2008 is far from a given - but it is getting easier and easier to picture.