WurfWhile

Sometimes predictions involve a bit of favorable circumstance to come true. About six weeks ago I predicted that the Democratic Primary for the 14th congressional race this cycle would exceed the money raised in last cycle’s 6th District race - where about $1,165,000 was spent. Bill Foster’s announcement that he plans to spend a million in the primary makes my prediction a no-brainer. I made the prediction expecting Linda Chapa LaVia would be in the race (and it looks like she may not enter it now) and not knowing that Bill Foster would enter the race.

So, beyond the $1 million figure from Bill Foster, what should we be looking for in the Democratic money race in the 14th Congressional? This quarter’s filings, soon to be out, should give us a good idea of how much of a race Jotham Stein can make it. I don’t know Stein’s money-raising plan, but it’s hard to see how he can remain competitive with Bill Foster if he doesn’t show at least raising six-figures this quarter (i.e. at least $100,000).

I have spoken to John Laesch, who doesn’t expect to do much this quarter, since he jumped in a bit late and also got married after announcing. John is the only other announced candidate in the race.

What will we learn next quarterly report (to be reported in October)? A number of things including:

- What kind of fundraising will Bill Foster do in his first full quarter in the race - and will it reflect Bill’s earlier announcement that he expects to spend about $5 million on the race?

- Barring the unexpected this quarter, will Jotham Stein be able to ramp up his fundraising to compete with Foster’s paid media/communications in the district?

- John Laesch is known from his last run as a scrappy field work campaigner who uses free media where he can - but in a large district like the 14th you need money to reach voters - will John be able to start attracting the six-figure money he needs to run a competitive campaign?

- If Linda Chapa LaVia is to enter the race, it’s hard to imagine she can do so effectively after September given Bill Foster’s financial commitment. Will we see Linda with money in the FEC congressional filings in October?

- What’s true for State Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, who has name recognition from holding office, is much truer of Joe Serra - if he’s going to enter the race competitively it’s hard to imagine Joe can wait past September - will he file?

It’s an interesting race.