WurfWhile

Rick’s take is here - and see this complimentary take by Tom Schaller. I see a lot of merit in it - but am not as convinced, particularly about how many people will be swayed by the ‘dynasty’ issue. These are some things I’d consider in reading the tea leaves - and I’m sure there’s a lot more I don’t know about:

- Barack supposedly has one of the best ground operations in Iowa right now - that may end up mattering more than polling (see here and here).

- Women voters. Women are a major voting block for Democrats and according to one poll will comprise 62% of Iowa caucus goers - Clinton currently leads with a third of their support followed by Obama and Edwards.

- One concern for the Obama campaign is that Obama’s supporters seem the least likely to caucus and the most likely to change their minds about which candidate they support.

- Brokered convention. It may not be overly likely, but if nobody gets enough votes to take it - which seems more possible now than for years - than all sorts of things might happen. Bill Richardson might suddenly look like a genius for not running for U.S. Senate - and his votes are presumptively in Hillary’s pocket (at least now). Does John Edwards become a king/queen maker? Will it be close enough for other candidates like Biden, Dodd and Kucinich to matter? This scenario strikes me as more likely if Obama wins Iowa than not - and that’s not to say Obama in that circumstance might not take it all. If Clinton wins Iowa it’s harder to imagine anything other than her victory overall.