There’s been recent discussion of whether Republican Illinois State Senator Kirk Dillard blew it when Dillard appeared in an ad for Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential Primaries. At the time I thought it was a smart move on his part - possibly with an eye to a post in an Obama Administration. I still think it was smart, if difficult.
When Alan Keyes was running against Barack Obama, I saw Kirk Dillard speak at a bi-partisan informational voting forum in Naperville. There Senator Dillard made it clear that he was not an Alan Keyes-style Republican (it was a ‘less said the better’ type reaction). It’s not much of a leap to say the relatively socially moderate Dillard is not an enthusiastic member of the ‘party of Palin,’ even if he may have been more enthusiastic about the older, somewhat more moderate version of John McCain.
I said before that I still think Dillard’s move was smart - here’s why.
1. While anything’s possible, Barack Obama has to be considered the going-away favorite in the race with John McCain regardless of the polls. McCain’s Republican party has presided over a terrible economy that even when “expanding” left most voters stagnating or behind - and now we’ve had eight months of job losses in what is clearly a recession. The Iraq War is viewed by most voters as a mistake - and John McCain was one of the earliest boosters for invading Iraq and among its biggest cheerleaders (although knowing it’s a losing issue he doesn’t talk about that much right now). Finally, John McCain’s embrace of President George W. Bush in policy and physically in photos connects him with one of the most unpopular presidents in history. If you don’t think the Obama campaign is n’t going to drive these negatives home (as necessary) while utilizing an unprecedented GOTV ground game that’s bringing more people to the polls than ever before - well, then you haven’t been paying attention.
2. Kirk Dillard is the type of politician in temperament and through connections that you could easily see Barack Obama appointing as a sign of bipartisanship.
3. Illinois for the foreseeable future is a Democratic state with an active socially conservative Republican minority that will hamper the already difficult odds that GOP social moderates face to win state office. Kirk Dillard was also smart to drop his Chairmanship of the DuPage GOP just before the county voted majority Democratic in the recent primaries - and before its lock on all officeholders gets broken by the Democrats (which will happen this November). Republican officeholders will dominate DuPage politics in the near-term - but they will continue to lose their dominance over time and may even become the minority office holding party over the next decade or so. Bottom line, the prospects for DuPage Republican Kirk Dillard moving up in Illinois are slim.
It may be that Kirk Dillard will stay where he is, or retire, or maybe surprise me and make a bid for a statewide office (although he’s already had chances that he’s declined for governor and U.S. Senator). But I’d say that the smart money says if Dillard remains in politics he’ll adhere to the maxim: if you can’t move up - you move out.
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